Yet More Pessimistic Economists

In the past three weeks I've attended/read conference calls and presentations by analysts and economists from Goldman, Citi, Deutche Bank, etc.

It is pure ugly. People are expecting unemployment rate to be around 9-10%, and the housing price go down by another 10-20% nationally. Deflation is actually a huge concern, as that would accelerate the death spiral.

To be sure, we are not at Great Depression territory-that's 25% unemployment rate and 30% GDP decline per annum. But if there is a term that describes something between a Depression and a mere recession, this is it. The problem is that the deep recession is global; China just lost 20 million jobs, the housing bubble has popped in Spain, Iceland is insolvent, Japan has slipped into its own recession- the G8 meetings will not be fun this year.

The most staggering number today? World trade has declined by 30% this past year. That is a lot of empty containers and mothballed ships.