Thursday, August 21, 2008

Whence Forth Shall The Next Bubble Hiss?

From Robert J Shiller, a highly respected economist on all things housing market: (h/t to CR)
While housing price booms have been known for centuries, the recent boom is unique in its pervasiveness. Dramatic home price booms since the late 1990s have been in evidence in Australia, Canada, China, France, India, Ireland, Italy, Korea, Russia, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States, among other countries.
How well can banks of the world handle an international housing bubble?

One other factoid I thought was interesting. Chart 4 of the paper shows that housing price run-ups in Netherlands and Norway are actually higher than that of US. While higher population density of the two countries might justify some of the run-ups, the fact that their housing price ran in parallel with the US up to 1990 suggests that they might see some rough spots not unlike the de-leveraging process we are currently experiencing in the US.

Wow.

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