No Low-Hanging Fruit Here

My first project at FNMA: provide a formal econometric forecasting model for national housing starts. In conjunction with the NY Fed Reserve. To be used for SOx compliance reporting and strategic budgeting.

Bring it on.

Some thoughts as to how to approach this:

1. Lit review: AREUEA, NBER, AEA
2. Industry review: NAHB, economy.com
3. Model estimation, including scenario adjustnments
4. Auxiliary model estimation: OLS to provide market fundamentals estimation net of t-1 effects
5. Formal documentaion and write-ups.